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San Mateo County under state regional stay-at-home order as ICU capacity drops

Original post made on Dec 18, 2020

Calling the human toll of the COVID-19 pandemic "devastating," San Mateo County announced it will enforce the state's regional stay-at-home order starting Thursday at 11:59 p.m., officials said Wednesday.

Read the full story here Web Link posted Wednesday, December 16, 2020, 3:59 PM

Comments (21)

Posted by The Voice of Palo Alto
a resident of Crescent Park
on Dec 24, 2020 at 6:44 pm

The Voice of Palo Alto is a registered user.

Although I do like to stay away from criticizing the health officials as they are just trying to do their job, the decision of not closing in lock step with other counties was, in my opinion, a poor decision by Dr. Scott Morrow. He proceeded to write a two or three page essay about his reasons for staying open. Then the first weekend he didn’t shut down, everyone drove over to San Mateo County from other counties most likely bringing the virus with them since San Mateo County was just about the only county that stayed open.

Web Link

Then about a week later San Mateo county had to shut down anyway. I get it. No one wants to be the “bad person” to tell businesses they need to shut down again, but on the other side of the coin, come on, the writing was on the wall with other counties moving to shut down. On balance he made some good points in his long post, but of course he had an excerpt about “threading the needle of keeping schools open while a stay at home order is in effect” because in ***his opinion*** schools should be open. It’s easy to be the person that claims they are doing the right things for the children but it’s difficult to tell businesses to shut down. I get it and it’s a tough situation, but the writing was on the wall for more shut downs. [Portion removed.] Staying in lockstep with other counties seems like a pretty obvious decision.

Here is a link to his post:

Web Link


Posted by Peter Carpenter
a resident of Menlo Park
on Dec 24, 2020 at 7:06 pm

Peter Carpenter is a registered user.

Stay-at-home orders do buy time and may reduce the short term load on hospitals but, to be effective in stopping the epidemic, any such "lockdowns"
must be accompanied by widespread testing, contact tracing and isolation of infected individuals.

The pain and efforts of ALL the prior "lockdowns" have been WASTED because they were not followed by such widespread testing, contact tracing and isolation of infected individuals.

Our current lockdown will keep some of the pressure off of our strained health care facilities but it will do little to slow the virus if we do not dramatically increase our testing, contact tracing and isolation of infected persons.


New Zealand, Australia, Taiwan and South Korea have demonstrated exactly how to do this.


However, Dr. Morrow was precisely correct when he reminded us that:

"This is a horrible, nasty, and lethal virus that is highly transmissible and one you do not want to get. To get out of this situation depends on all of us. Our collective best course of action: No gatherings outside of immediate households, use facial coverings extensively, and social distancing. And during this surge these are the additional things you should be doing: Stop moving around, stay at home except for essential (please observe the most restrictive definition of what you deem to be essential) activities, avoid all travel that is not essential, never enter an indoor environment without a mask if that environment has people outside your household, get tested if you have symptoms or are concerned, and isolate yourself IMMEDIATELY from your family and others if you have symptoms."


Posted by Peter Carpenter
a resident of Menlo Park
on Dec 24, 2020 at 7:26 pm

Peter Carpenter is a registered user.

Please take the time to read Dr. Murrow's letter. He does an excellent job of trying to balance the issues and takes a wait and see attitude on what needed to be done.

For example:" I think people should stay at home, avoid all non-essential activities, wear masks, and not gather with anyone outside their households. I’ve been saying this for about 10 months now. If you didn’t listen to my (and many others) entreaties before, I don’t think you’ll likely change your behavior based on a new order. I appreciate that some of you think I (or the government) have magical abilities to change everyone’s behavior, but I assure you, I (we) do not."

Unfortunately he could not control the "edge effects" of one county having a less restrictive policies surrounded by other counties with more restrictive policies.


Posted by [email protected]
a resident of Mountain View
on Dec 24, 2020 at 9:56 pm

[email protected] is a registered user.

Peter,

I know we have had differences of opinion. But I have to agree with you on these posts.

Especially since it is likely that we cannot vaccinate the required 65% plus of the country in at least 1 to 2 years. Pfizer cannot supply more than 100,000,000 doses until July which comes to 50,000,000 people out of 330,000,000, which is 15%. If we are lucky Moderna can produce the same. That means only 60% of the people will be vaccinated by the end of 2021.

And THAT is dependent on the continual safety checks and hopefully nothing appears out of the blue. Also that any "new evolutions" of the COVID will be covered by the vaccines.

Am I right is saying we are not in the clear and not appearing to be able to "plan" to return to normal for at least 1 to 2 years?

I hope these vaccines will work in the long run, and that they don't cause any other problems after they are used. But even after the vaccines are delivered, it will take years more to reengage the complex systems that make up our economic infrastructure, unless there is perhaps another $2 Trillion spent on federal projects within one year.


Posted by Lee Forrest
a resident of Crescent Park
on Dec 25, 2020 at 12:54 pm

Lee Forrest is a registered user.

>"Our current lockdown will keep some of the pressure off of our strained health care facilities but it will do little to slow the virus if we do not dramatically increase our testing, contact tracing and isolation of infected persons."

>"New Zealand, Australia, Taiwan and South Korea have demonstrated exactly how to do this."

^ Concurring BUT South Korea is now experiencing an upswing in Covid-19 cases because they thought they had it under control...wrong, just a nationwide delusion of sorts.

Their false sense of security was based on earlier lockdowns followed by a diminishing case count & the reopening of businesses & allowances of small public gatherings.

Web Link

>"...it will do little to slow the virus if we do not dramatically increase our testing, contact tracing and isolation of infected persons."

^ The coronavirus is currently mutating (as all viruses do) & there is no known cure/resolution whether it be rushed vaccines, mandatory testing, SIP mandates and/or what not.

The coronavirus might have to run its course & could become a seasonal occurance...neutralized to some extent by
SAFE innoculations that the majority of the public have established some faith in.

Until then, it's going to be a rough winter/spring 2020-2021 season for nearly everyone.


Posted by Peter Carpenter
a resident of Menlo Park
on Dec 25, 2020 at 1:13 pm

Peter Carpenter is a registered user.

" Concurring BUT South Korea is now experiencing an upswing in Covid-19 cases because they thought they had it under control...wrong, just a nationwide delusion of sorts."

An excellent reminder that the objective is to stamp out the virus NOT, as we happily say, flatten the curve.

The US COVOD death rate is 1,018 per million.

The South Korean COVID death rate is 15.


Posted by Lee Forrest
a resident of Crescent Park
on Dec 25, 2020 at 1:21 pm

Lee Forrest is a registered user.

>"...the objective is to stamp out the virus NOT, as we happily say, flatten the curve."

^ Sounds good (in theory or blind faith) but the last time I checked, most viruses can only be contained not 'stamped out' completely.

Viruses are very resilient & always prone to mutating.


Posted by Peter Carpenter
a resident of Menlo Park
on Dec 25, 2020 at 1:59 pm

Peter Carpenter is a registered user.

Viruses like polio and smallpox that do not have a non-human host to hide out in can be totally eliminated - as smallpox has been.

Viruses that have a non-human reservoir like MERS (camel - reservoir), Hantavirus (mice) and COVID (dogs, cats, ???) cannot be eliminated BUT their human infection rate can be driven to zero for some period of time. And then with good surveillance any eruptions can be quickly caught ala measles in the US and COVID in New Zealand.

Settling for flattening the curve is crazy because that just means that we will see more infections and more deaths.


Posted by Lee Forrest
a resident of Crescent Park
on Dec 25, 2020 at 3:01 pm

Lee Forrest is a registered user.

>"Settling for flattening the curve is crazy because that just means that we will see more infections and more deaths."

^Concurring (again) BUT what are the best case parameter(s) to enable/ensure that everyday life in America can return to some semblance of normalcy?

Regular SARS-2/Covid-19 testing, isolation (as recommended/required by public health protocols), mass vaccinations (for those so inclined/willing) & perhaps a seasonal break in the virus are really all that's currently available as preventative measures.

The Covid-19 virus & its subsequent variants will never go away in their entirety & many citizens are growing weary of the periodic shutdowns & re-openings of countless public facilities & businesses...it's like a broken record.

While South Korea was successful early on in containing the coronavirus, once they assumed it had subsided life in general returned to normal and then...another Covid-19 wave (the 3rd).

As more & more people get either further aggravated, further fearful or for lack of a better word...fatalist, public trust in both the infectious disease pundits and politicians will reach an even lower point.


Posted by Peter Carpenter
a resident of Menlo Park
on Dec 25, 2020 at 5:25 pm

Peter Carpenter is a registered user.

"^Concurring (again) BUT what are the best case parameter(s) to enable/ensure that everyday life in America can return to some semblance of normalcy?"

Again and again - Vaccinations, widespread testing, contact tracing and isolation of infected individuals will enable us to resume most activities.

The new normal will be different from the old normal.

Mass gatherings will still carry a significant risk as will densely packed public transit.

When there are outbreaks highly localized lockdowns will be imposed with much greater rigor than previous lockdowns.

Unvaccinated individuals will not be allowed in many venues such as airplane travel, schools, most businesses or into most countries.


Posted by [email protected]
a resident of Mountain View
on Dec 25, 2020 at 6:25 pm

[email protected] is a registered user.

Peter you wrote:

“Unvaccinated individuals will not be allowed in many venues such as airplane travel, schools, most businesses or into most countries.”

You do realize that at least 50,000,000 people are not going to be allowed to be vaccinated due to allergies alone. On top of many other subgroups. This will mean that as much as 20% of our people are not going to be allowed to return to “active” economic activities.

That means our economy is all but destroyed, there will be as much as say 10% unemployment that will never be hirable. That kind of permanent reduction of GDP is going to be a disaster.

Everyday Life as we knew it is gone forever. Please just stop trying to be over optimistic. If we can even resume 80% “activity”, there is not going to be a “economic” recovery at all. Remember we were supposedly with a less than 5% unemployment rate, with still slow growth in earnings.

We have to tell the people the truth here, even if we are lucky to get the vaccines, there are many that will be permanently barred from life as we knew it.


Posted by Lee Forrest
a resident of Crescent Park
on Dec 25, 2020 at 7:24 pm

Lee Forrest is a registered user.

>"Everyday Life as we knew it is gone forever."

^ Most likely so as 9/11 & Covid-19 have radically altered everyday life as we once knew it.

Global terrorism & variants of the coronavirus will not be going away anytime soon despite proactive efforts to curtail them...containment remains the only options available.

Say goodbye to salad bars/food courts/hotel buffet offerings, & security measures/protocols at larger public venues & transportation hubs will be subject to even further scrutiny to ensure public safety.

Political & cancel culture movements aside, the new millennium is turning out to be a real drag.













Posted by Peter Carpenter
a resident of Menlo Park
on Dec 25, 2020 at 7:47 pm

Peter Carpenter is a registered user.

Between Lee and Goldy we have the extremes.

The truth lies somewhere between.


Posted by Peter Carpenter
a resident of Menlo Park
on Dec 25, 2020 at 7:55 pm

Peter Carpenter is a registered user.

"You do realize that at least 50,000,000 people are not going to be allowed to be vaccinated due to allergies alone."

Please provide a peer reviewed source to support this outlandish assertion.


Posted by [email protected]
a resident of Mountain View
on Dec 25, 2020 at 8:11 pm

[email protected] is a registered user.

Peter,

Pfizer said they don't want their vaccine given to those with allergic reactions. Moderna has also said the same. They both are not promoting giving the vaccines to either children, immunodeficiency, women who plan or are pregnant, amongst so much else.

So I don't need research when the manufacturers are saying don't do it, right?

And we still have no PROOF that the vaccines are working either, what will happen if they do "blow up" in our faces?

Your simply saying, let's hope for the best, but not preparing for the worst.

Isn't this true?


Posted by Peter Carpenter
a resident of Menlo Park
on Dec 25, 2020 at 8:13 pm

Peter Carpenter is a registered user.

Goldy - Please provide a peer reviewed source to support this outlandish assertion.


Posted by Peter Carpenter
a resident of Menlo Park
on Dec 25, 2020 at 8:18 pm

Peter Carpenter is a registered user.

Goldy - ""You do realize that at least 50,000,000 people are not going to be allowed to be vaccinated due to allergies alone."


Fact:

" An estimated 3.6 million Americans were prescribed an EpiPen in 2015, as reported by the Wall Street Journal."

Where are the other 45,000,000 million allergic Americans?


Please provide a peer reviewed source to support this outlandish assertion.


Posted by [email protected]
a resident of Mountain View
on Dec 25, 2020 at 8:49 pm

[email protected] is a registered user.

Peter,

As you well know some people getting the vaccine had allergic reactions with NO history of allergic reactions yet.

Again, you are just trying to distract for the fact that many are not going to get the vaccines because the VENDORS say not to give it to them.

SEVERE allergic reactions are not "registered" by simple EpiPen prescriptions, and YOU KNOW THIS. In fact MANY people should be prescribed them but never get them because they aren't seen by an ALLERGY specialist.

Just stop trying to make claims you KNOW are not valid nor necessary. The truth is that we are in no way close to being safe and will not be for years.

I know that I actually should have an EpiPen because I have a SEVERE allergy to wasps. So many people in this country don't even know they are at risk.


Posted by Peter Carpenter
a resident of Menlo Park
on Dec 25, 2020 at 8:51 pm

Peter Carpenter is a registered user.

Where are the other 45,000,000 million allergic Americans?


Please provide a peer reviewed source to support this outlandish assertion.


Posted by [email protected]
a resident of Mountain View
on Dec 26, 2020 at 12:38 am

[email protected] is a registered user.

Peter you wrote:

“Unvaccinated individuals will not be allowed in many venues such as airplane travel, schools, most businesses or into most countries.”

And

“Where are the other 45,000,000 million allergic Americans?

Please provide a peer reviewed source to support this outlandish assertion.”

There are according to the Asthma and Allergy Foundation of America page found here (Web Link) indicating 50,000,000 people per year have been discovered to have allergies. And according to the website as much as 10% of the world will have adverse drug reactions or 33,000,000 in the U.S.

WebMD says as much as 3% of adults have weakened immunity seen here (Web Link) which comes to 9,900,000

Gallup says that only 5% of American adults do not want to have a child, and in fact 19% of women want to have one seen here (Web Link) and there are 166,700,000 women in the country so that comes to 31,600,000 women

According to the website Child trends there are 74,100,000 children in the U.S. seen here (Web Link.)

Now say there are 330,000,000 people in the U.S. and that for the sake of this case (31,600,000 + 74,100,000) cannot be vaccinated due to the VENDORS safety protocol that comes to 105,700,000 out of 330,000,000, that is actually 32% the population.

So let’s just imagine the immune impaired and women alone are to be shut off from the economy, that comes to 41,500,000 people that are permanently cut off from work, right? And that is not counting the allergies.

Since there are only 155,760,000 according to www.statista.com and say you divide 41,500,000 from 155,760,000 you get a permanent unemployment rate of 25%


Posted by Lee Forrest
a resident of Crescent Park
on Dec 26, 2020 at 7:05 am

Lee Forrest is a registered user.

According to this article, the latest UK strain of the coronavirus was detected/suspected last September.

Web Link

Like seasonal flu shots based on the previous year's virus & it's past variants, keeping up with the ongoing Covid/Sars 2 mutant strains is going to prove quite challenging as long-term efficacy and safety from the 'Warp Speed' vaccines remains unproven to date.

When & if periodic/recommended Covid-19 innoculations start imitating smartphone OS/security updates, many people are going to have even less faith in the scientific/medical community & the various politicians promoting new vaccinations & periodic shutdowns of countless businesses & private lives.

Of note/from the Editor's letter in The Week 12/25/20 pp.3...

"In a Massachusetts lab last Jan. 13, Moderna researchers used the genetic sequence of the virus, made public by China, to design an mRNA molecule that teaches the immune system to recognize and neutralize it. By February, their vaccine had actually been made and shipped to the National Institutes of Health for testing...."For the entire span of the pandemic in this country", David Wallace-Wells said last week in New York magazine, "we had the tools to prevent it."

The Editor's letter concludes...

'But for sound reasons of safety and ethics, science and government did not authorize their use-until now.'

Another point being...perhaps the Covid-19 pandemic should not have been used as a 2020 campaign issue due to the aforementioned reasons cited by the editor.


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