Real Estate

Real Estate Matters: Slowdown is more than seasonal

Homeowners trying to sell are left with some uncertainty

The residential property market in Palo Alto has cooled down meaningfully in the last six months or so. The median home price of all homes sold in Palo Alto has dropped to $2.79 million in the second half of 2018, 10 percent lower than $3.1 million in the first half. The average number of days a home is on the market before it is sold is 23, nine days longer than the 14-day average in the first half.

Price reduction has become the new norm. One out of four homes listed in Palo Alto since July 1 has reduced its listing price. The last time Palo Alto had more than 60 reductions in the late half of the year was 2012. The market back then had just started recovering after the financial crisis of 2009. This year's sudden shift is more than seasonality and has left many home sellers in an awkward position.


Xin Jiang of Alain Pinel Palo Alto.
Multiple factors have contributed to this slowdown. First of all, we had slightly more inventory than usual late in the year. There were 567 new listings on the Multiple Listing System as of Dec. 7, or 11 percent more than all of 2017.

Secondly, home prices seem to have risen too much and too quickly in the last two years. The median price of all sold homes in Palo Alto rose from $2.4 million in 2010 to $2.6 million in the first half of 2017, then $2.81 million in the second half of 2017, and finally $3.1 million in the first half of 2018. This decline in affordability, coupled with rising mortgage interest rates and the increasing uncertainties of the global economy, including the trade war between the U.S. and China, have made potential buyers think twice and more before making a move on a home purchase.

However, not all buyers have disappeared. A partially updated home on an oversized 10,000-square-foot lot in the Duveneck/St. Francis neighborhood listed below $2.9 million in November received 7-8 offers, and was sold for over $3.5 million, or more than 20 percent over asking. Another old home in Crescent Park, listed at $4.5 million in the same month, received 3 offers and was sold for over $5 million, closing in 6 days.

When the market slows down, buyers become pickier. Predictably, location plays an even bigger role in a weak market than a hot one. Among the 63 homes that lowered their prices in the second half of this year, close to 60 percent were originally listed for below $3 million, and most of them in "less desirable" locations.

The million-dollar question being asked at this time is where the market is heading in 2019. The market is very likely to continue its current downward trend after an extended eight-year trend upward.

It's possible, based on the active listings in the middle of December, to see another 10- or 15-percent increase in inventory. There were 43 active Palo Alto listings in the Multiple Listing System as of Dec. 9. In the second half of this year, 44 homes listed for sale were pulled off the market, and most of them will likely come back in spring 2019.

Moreover, as Palo Alto's median home price is still near a record high, sellers who have planned to put their homes on the market will likely follow through in the near term.

As the recent market change has showed, buyers may not jump in immediately even if they see an ideal home within their budget. In fact, many buyers waited for price reductions to make their initial moves in the fall. In 2019, homes may stay on market longer than the typical one week that we all got used to in the past few years. Home prices may continue to be soft as well.

How should sellers and buyers prepare for a slower or a more normal market?

When the tide is changing, the process of bringing a home to the market, including house preparation, marketing and setting the price becomes more critical. If the initial listing price is set too low, sellers will be disappointed to find offers are not coming in as high as they expect. If priced too high, houses will receive very limited interest, lose momentum and get buried in many other listings. Sellers may also have to become more flexible to work with offers with contingencies or take over a few repairs as buyers no longer take homes as they are. For sellers who don't have cash-flow issues, providing direct financing to buyers may be considered to get a higher sales price.

On the other hand, the market will allow buyers, especially those at the entry level, to finally pick and choose a bit. However, buyers should always carefully weigh the pros and cons of a few hundred thousand dollars in savings in the near term versus the risk of rising interest rates, and more importantly, the future probability of finding the right home in the right neighborhood if they miss the one in front of them.

Xin Jiang is a Realtor for Alain Pinel in Palo Alto. She can be emailed at xjiang@apr.com.

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Comments

16 people like this
Posted by resident
a resident of Community Center
on Dec 24, 2018 at 10:40 am

How is the Trump recession affecting home prices? People that were planning to use their stock market investments to buy their home may have trouble now.


16 people like this
Posted by Estella Mnuchin
a resident of Barron Park
on Dec 24, 2018 at 11:41 am

The Trump Shutdown will hasten the Trump Recession, as it will lower GDP another quarter to half point. It will be a very interesting first quarter.

Any poker player can spot a tell. Having Treasury Sec call everyone from his vacation in Cabo to say: 'nothing to see here, all is well' i a real tell.

Forbes:
"That was the message Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin sought to convey after holding unscheduled Sunday afternoon calls with the heads of the largest banks in America: Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan, Brian Moynihan of Bank of America, Michael Corbat of Citigroup, Tim Sloan of Wells Fargo, David Solomon of Goldman Sachs and James Gorman of Morgan Stanley. In a statement released by Treasury, Mnuchin said these CEOs confirmed “markets continue to function properly.” These bankers also assured Mnuchin their firms have the liquidity to fund themselves and their lending activities, and reported no clearance or margin issues on their trades, Treasury said."


Yeah, nothing to see here, from my vacation villa in Cabo.

What's worse - Mnuchin lying to the banks, or the banks lying to Mnuchin, telling Munchkin they're all good, nothing to see here, either?


16 people like this
Posted by Estella Mnuchin
a resident of Barron Park
on Dec 24, 2018 at 11:42 am

"These bankers also assured Mnuchin their firms have the liquidity to fund themselves and their lending activities"

Just like they said during the first half of 2008.


30 people like this
Posted by Wu Shen
a resident of Charleston Meadows
on Dec 24, 2018 at 12:21 pm

Cannot blame Trump or the Munchkin. Houses in Palo Alto way overpriced to begin with.

If people have money, they can afford to buy. If not, they live in RV.

East Palo Alto is now place to buy house for investment. Rent or leave vacant. Then sell to developer who wants to build new tract.

Buy at under $1M and let inflation and housing needs push prices up.

No need to be real estate expert or economist.


18 people like this
Posted by Anon
a resident of Another Palo Alto neighborhood
on Dec 24, 2018 at 12:26 pm

Posted by Wu Shen, a resident of Charleston Meadows

>> Cannot blame Trump or the Munchkin. Houses in Palo Alto way overpriced to begin with.

Couldn't agree more. Overpriced. Way, way overpriced. Better buy somewhere else where you can get a better value.


13 people like this
Posted by Estella Mnuchin
a resident of Barron Park
on Dec 24, 2018 at 2:36 pm

>> Cannot blame Trump or the Munchkin.
>> No need to be real estate expert or economist.

True. But y'all think this is just a PA thing. The RE market has completely tanked all over, far beyond seasonality.

Hence the Munchkin's 'nothing to worry about' call, and the Banksters equally disingenuous reply: 'yeah, nothing to see over here, either'.


21 people like this
Posted by Blake Turner
a resident of Duveneck/St. Francis
on Dec 24, 2018 at 5:27 pm

If Trump wasn't antagonizing the Chinese so much then even more of them would be coming to Palo Alto and pushing the housing prices up further. After all, they have to have somewhere to invest/launder their monetary resources. Is that what you want?

Trump gets blamed for everything. By pulling out troops from the Middle East he gets chastised. If he left them there, he would be accused of being a warmonger.

People...you can't have it both ways and expect to come out ahead.

Blake Turner...a Joe Biden supporter for 2020.


22 people like this
Posted by Watching
a resident of Another Palo Alto neighborhood
on Dec 25, 2018 at 3:45 am

It’s more difficult for Chinese to pull out their money from China now, thus, the somewhat slowdown in their investments here.


32 people like this
Posted by Madias
a resident of College Terrace
on Dec 25, 2018 at 12:12 pm

The Trump chaos and his corporate welfare tax cut have ruined the economy. The Palo Alto CC ruined the quality of life here by overbuilding and selling out the town shops, stores and residents to startups and developers. Of course home prices are falling. We have our heartless politicians to blame for this. Dump Trump. Vote out the PACC.


14 people like this
Posted by Sell RC MP SM
a resident of Menlo Park
on Dec 25, 2018 at 8:29 pm

It ain't the foreign money, gents. It's all over. Redwood City sales aren't dependent on Chinese money.


11 people like this
Posted by Scary Silly
a resident of Old Palo Alto
on Dec 25, 2018 at 10:47 pm

A RE slowdown, coupled with a stock bear market and slower growth is not good.

Add in the tariff war and other Trump insanity and the stuff can really hit the fan in 2019.

Say goodbye to the 9 year Obama recovery.


16 people like this
Posted by Micha
a resident of Menlo Park
on Dec 27, 2018 at 11:23 pm

I recently moved to Silicon Valley and was surprised by how bad the traffic and city life in Palo Alto is. My wife and I drove around looking at houses and didn’t see anything we would want to live In - independent of cost. I think whatever Palo Alto had that attracted people in the past must be gone now. There is nothing appealing about that town.

We currently rent in MenloPark.


9 people like this
Posted by Geraldine
a resident of Green Acres
on Dec 28, 2018 at 3:10 am

I was born in Palo Alto and am slowly going to die here I surmise ...if I don't get mugged or ran over in a crosswalk.


21 people like this
Posted by Turn the Page
a resident of Menlo Park
on Dec 28, 2018 at 8:37 am

[Post removed due to same poster using multiple names]


9 people like this
Posted by Obama SAVED the WORLD
a resident of Evergreen Park
on Dec 28, 2018 at 8:55 am

3.1 Million Homes down to 2.8 Million (for a POS shack) is TRUMP fault? Why do the liberals and progressives hate the poor and middle class so much? I bet it's TRUMP fault that CAL has the highest cost of living too? I guess selling the state to the Chinese money launders wasn't a good idea in the first place or shipping all the high-paying, full benefits manufacturing jobs to China in the 90's wasn't a great idea too. BUT hey, it's TRUMP's fault too.


9 people like this
Posted by Obama SAVED the WORLD
a resident of Evergreen Park
on Dec 28, 2018 at 8:59 am

"Say goodbye to the 9 year Obama recovery."

LOL. What kind of recovery takes 9 years? You mean 20 Trillions debt binge that created the "Everything Bubble" that only benefited the top 1% on the back of the poor and middle class....Fixed it for YA.

Obama to Trump: "You didn't built that. Someone else made that happen."


17 people like this
Posted by Turn the Page
a resident of Menlo Park
on Dec 28, 2018 at 9:10 am

[Post removed due to same poster using multiple names]




2 people like this
Posted by Anon
a resident of Another Palo Alto neighborhood
on Dec 28, 2018 at 9:10 am

Posted by Obama SAVED the WORLD, a resident of Evergreen Park

>> I guess selling the state to the Chinese money launders wasn't a good idea in the first place or shipping all the high-paying, full benefits manufacturing jobs to China in the 90's wasn't a great idea too. BUT hey, it's TRUMP's fault too.

Generally speaking, modern economists (e.g. from Keynesian to neoliberal, etc) were more correct more often than other, less modern, economists between 1945-1980. But, they did screw this one up. See: "THE SURPRISINGLY SWIFT DECLINE OF U.S. MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT":

Web Link


24 people like this
Posted by Estella Mnuchin
a resident of Barron Park
on Dec 28, 2018 at 10:19 am

@ ObamaSAVED: "What kind of recovery takes 9 years?"

Nine years without recession is better than any Republican president in modern times.

"Since the presidency of Theodore Roosevelt, who left office in 1909, every single Republican president has seen a recession take hold in their first term." Web Link

And the Obama Recovery saved us from the Bush Great Recession, or have you already forgotten how bad it was in Dec 2008, with one million jobs lost in a single month? Month after month.

You are insane if you've already forgotten the Bush disaster.

...

"You mean 20 Trillions debt binge"

Funny when so-called conservatives bash Obama for cutting in half Bush's 1 Trillion Dollar Deficit to less than $400 B.

And are silent as Trump tax cuts for corporations and the Trump family add trillions in debt.

You sure you want to go there?!?

let's review:
Reagan tripled the deficit. (900B to 2.7 trillion)
Clinton fixed the Reagan/Bush1 mess and gave America the first BUDGET SURPLUS.
. . . (bonus points: name a GOP that has run a surplus! hint - none!)
Bush2 gave the Clinton Surplus to the top 1%, and then ran the first BILLION DOLLAR DEFICIT.
. . . (bonus points: it takes a republicon to take a surplus to a trillion dollar deficit!)
Obama cut the Bush Trillion Dollar Deficit in half.
Trump and Paul Ryan exploded the deficit and are adding trillions in debt over the next decade.

Recall what your buddy, lil' Dickie Cheney said? "Reagan taught us deficits don't matter"

You are such a hypocrite.


9 people like this
Posted by Old Steve
a resident of Barron Park
on Dec 28, 2018 at 11:00 am

Who cares about Trump ?
He is a buffoon. And his supporters are Russian trolls.
This thread is about Palo Alto Home prices. Try to focus.


12 people like this
Posted by Estella Mnuchin
a resident of Barron Park
on Dec 28, 2018 at 11:17 am

"This thread is about Palo Alto Home prices."

Actually, no. It's about the slowdown: "Real Estate Matters: Slowdown is more than seasonal"

And any balanced, literate person will tell you many factors are involved. Among those, the potential for the slowdown to worsen due to Trump's looming recession is great: his ongoing Chinese trade wars, the Trump Wall Shutdown/Tantrum, today's threat to close the border and initiate a Mexican trade war, Munchkin's ill-advised calls, a transactional foreign policy with telling American troops we are 'suckers' and so, so much more... ane that's just the last *week*.

Wait until next week, with traders back from the holidays and volume picks back up to normal levels. It will be telling, one way or another. They will be flying blind, with limited economic indicators because Trump shut down many departments that provide that data.

His buffoonery (and it's support by trolls and fools) has real consequences, including in the national and regional real estate slowdowns.

...

"And his supporters are Russian trolls."

Again, no, as PT Barnum told us. Do not discount the American fools who are misled/played daily by Fox, etc..


11 people like this
Posted by Anon
a resident of Another Palo Alto neighborhood
on Dec 28, 2018 at 11:38 am

Posted by Micha, a resident of Menlo Park

>> I recently moved to Silicon Valley and was surprised by how bad the traffic and city life in Palo Alto is.

Yes. The traffic has gotten absolutely dreadful. Dangerous, really; e.g. by the time the ambulance can get you to the nearest ER, ...

>> My wife and I drove around looking at houses and didn’t see anything we would want to live In - independent of cost. I think whatever Palo Alto had that attracted people in the past must be gone now. There is nothing appealing about that town.

In defense of my town -- don't imagine for one second that most of us old-timers are begging more people to live and work here. I wouldn't consider moving here right now, either-- but, I think it will get better again.

>> We currently rent in MenloPark.

Enjoy Menlo Park. I do like Peninsula cities better than San Jose/Santa Clara/Sunnyvale.


15 people like this
Posted by Wu Shen
a resident of Charleston Meadows
on Dec 28, 2018 at 12:34 pm

Americans have only themselves to blame. Not Trump, Obama or Putin.

Switzerland has best model. People work, save and then invest. Same as in China.

Americans work, spend, and then think about investing.

And always complaining about people from other countries with money.


8 people like this
Posted by double dignity
a resident of University South
on Dec 28, 2018 at 2:44 pm

Trump is going to take a natural, cyclical real estate slowdown, and drive it into the ground at full speed... the crater will be 2008-like.


17 people like this
Posted by Count Your Blessings
a resident of Embarcadero Oaks/Leland
on Dec 28, 2018 at 3:03 pm

> Trump is going to take a natural, cyclical real estate slowdown, and drive it into the ground at full speed... the crater will be 2008-like.

This will be good for all parties concerned except those who initially overpaid and forced the home prices upwards. Too bad for them if/when they decide to sell.

The 'crater' will provide an ideal investment opportunity for RE speculators. And if property values go down, so will property taxes. Count your blessings.

Those who decide to sell but purchased their houses 'back in the day' when a decent PA home could be had for well under $100K will also do quite well with less capital gains tax to pay. Again, count your blessings (providing one is not being overly greedy).

It will be nice to actually see the price of something drop for awhile...




Like this comment
Posted by @Anon
a resident of another community
on Dec 28, 2018 at 3:06 pm

"In defense of my town -- don't imagine for one second that most of us old-timers are begging more people to live and work here"

Of course not. That would require some amount of empathy for everyone else living and working around here.


20 people like this
Posted by double dignity
a resident of University South
on Dec 28, 2018 at 3:15 pm

...the crater will be 2008-like

"This will be good for all parties concerned"

Whaaaaaa?!?!?

Did you live thru the bush recession?!? All that pain? 10 million jobs lost, all those foreclosures. All that pain.


17 people like this
Posted by Count Your Blessings
a resident of Embarcadero Oaks/Leland
on Dec 28, 2018 at 3:27 pm

>Did you live thru the bush recession?!? All that pain? 10 million jobs lost, all those foreclosures. All that pain.

It's the yin-yang of the business universe. While many Americans got poorer, some Chinese in the manufacturing sectors got wealthy. You cannot have it both ways.

The USA and Great Britain used to do their own manufacturing. By gradually exporting this work overseas, the Chinese benefited economically. We now are in an era where cost-effective overseas manufacturing rules the capitalist world.

Yes. Reagan and Bush be blamed for much of this but the current POTUS is trying to bring some of those lost domestic jobs back via import tariffs and by further antagonizing the Chinese. Mr. Trump seems to excel at antagonizing people both domestic and abroad. At least he is consistent.


6 people like this
Posted by Mother's Best
a resident of College Terrace
on Dec 28, 2018 at 4:25 pm

The 2008 Great Recession?

”It's the yin-yang of the business universe."

The Bush 2008 Great Recession was decidedly NOT the normal yin-yang business cycle.

Your flippancy borders on the amoral. See the post above re: empathy. And then go away.


7 people like this
Posted by Obama SAVED the WORLD
a resident of Evergreen Park
on Dec 28, 2018 at 4:49 pm

Lol I just hurt the snowflakes feelings.... sorry your housing bubble is bursting. If this is caused by Trump then great!!!!!! Maybe one day the middle class can afford to buy a house...what does the liberals and progressives hate the poor and middle class so much! Obama and FED saved Wall Street and the 1% and screwed everyone else and that's good to the liberals??? Lol. With Obama recovery for the rich who needs a trump recession....bring it!!! Screw the rich! Screw the money launderer! Screw them all


Let's saved the middle class from the 9 years Obama recovery!


5 people like this
Posted by Obama SAVED the WORLD
a resident of Esther Clark Park
on Dec 28, 2018 at 5:02 pm

It looks like your Messiah is the hypocrite.

" “The fact that we are here today to debate raising America’s debt limit is a sign of leadership failure. It is a sign that the US Government cannot pay its own bills. It is a sign that we now depend on ongoing financial assistance from foreign countries to finance our Government’s reckless fiscal policies. Increasing America ‘s debt weakens us domestically and internationally. Leadership means that, ‘the buck stops here.’ Instead, Washington is shifting the burden of bad choices today onto the backs of our children and grandchildren. America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership. Americans deserve better.”

Then when elected...

---

On the day that Barack Obama was sworn in—January 20, 2009—the debt was $10.626 trillion.

When he left the White House, on January 20, 2017, it was $19.947 trillion.

The math is simple:

Obama added $9 trillion in debt.

By comparison, George W. Bush added $4.9 trillion and Bill Clinton added $1.5 trillion.

---

YES...the Messiah added more debts then all the previous presidents combined!!! His supporters said this was to save the country from the crisis...that was due to too much debts!!! How do I solve a debt problem by adding even more debt! The rich gets richer on the back of the poor and middle class and this idiot said it's good! 3.1 millions for a POS shack is good!


8 people like this
Posted by Mother's Best
a resident of College Terrace
on Dec 28, 2018 at 5:09 pm

Obama didn't bail out Wall Street with TARP - Bush did.

Recessions and housing crashes hurt working folks far more than the wealthy. You are wishing evil thoughts on hard working Americans. Amoral thoughts and prayers under both your names.

Sleep well tonight. (not)


re: "Screw the money launderer!"

You realize that's the Trump success story since 2006, don't you? Russians laundered massive amounts through Trump properties. Trump, Kushner, Manafort, Cohen - despite the wide variety of criminal activities, it always came down to money laundering.

Look at all the indictments and guilty pleasure. Follow the money.


61 people like this
Posted by Quinn
a resident of College Terrace
on Dec 28, 2018 at 5:18 pm

Anyway you cut it, Trump is a massive crook and a grand Bufoon. He, his dad and his kids have ripped off and sold out this country for too long. A massive fraudster and his followers are simpleton dupes.


13 people like this
Posted by Don't Cry No Tears For the Wealthy
a resident of Professorville
on Dec 28, 2018 at 5:37 pm

Presidential preferences aside, it's kind of nice to see housing prices stabilize a bit. It will never go down drastically given the demand criteria for Palo Alto residencies and most people who overpaid for their homes can probably afford to lose a few hundred thousand dollars anyway. It's not like the poor folks who cannot afford to live here are spilling any tears.

Only the moneygrubbers will feel the pain (if any) and we'll shed some crocodile tears on their behalf. Meanwhile these folks will probably hop in their Teslas and head over to the wine country for dinner at the French Laundry where they can commiserate with other privileged colleagues while dining on overpriced cuisine washed down with various over-rated wines of their choice.

Boo-hoo to the bourgeois.


1 person likes this
Posted by Obama SAVED the WORLD
a resident of Evergreen Park
on Dec 28, 2018 at 5:42 pm

It seems like you snowflakes have selective memory

Web Link

[Portion removed.]


7 people like this
Posted by Mother's Best
a resident of College Terrace
on Dec 28, 2018 at 5:48 pm

"TARP was signed into law by President George W. Bush on October 3, 2008 with the passage of the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act. The program was pioneered by Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson..."


5 people like this
Posted by Born in PA
a resident of Midtown
on Dec 28, 2018 at 5:49 pm

So we all know how to blame what we don't like.

But blame Trump for making American's less civil and more divided for his own short-term(2 yr) sake.


4 people like this
Posted by Zhao Lin
a resident of Los Altos
on Dec 28, 2018 at 6:47 pm

America needs president like Deng Xiaoping to get back on track. That is how China superseded the USA as world economic power. China became the world's largest factory and now Americans scratching heads.

In 19th century, England was on top of world...then America in 20th century. All over now for both countries. China is now #1.

Everyone buys from China and America even borrows money from China. Guess who is richer? Everything Made China now.


2 people like this
Posted by Anon
a resident of Another Palo Alto neighborhood
on Dec 28, 2018 at 6:54 pm

Posted by @Anon, a resident of another community

>> Of course not. That would require some amount of empathy for everyone else living and working around here.

Are you asking me to feel empathy for all the people who think they want to live here, even though "whatever Palo Alto had that attracted people in the past must be gone now. There is nothing appealing about that town" ?

Sounds like you should feel empathy for me for living in such an unappealing place.


Like this comment
Posted by @Anon
a resident of another community
on Dec 28, 2018 at 7:32 pm

Yeah, the middle of Silicon Valley doesn't seem like an appealing location to form a retirement community.


5 people like this
Posted by Anon
a resident of Another Palo Alto neighborhood
on Dec 28, 2018 at 8:35 pm

Posted by @Anon, a resident of another community

>> Yeah, the middle of Silicon Valley doesn't seem like an appealing location to form a retirement community.

To each his/her own. Some seniors like living in Palo Alto. Why shouldn't they, considering how un-appealing it is to younger people. Some say.


1 person likes this
Posted by @Anon
a resident of another community
on Dec 29, 2018 at 1:31 am

The only thing unappealing about Palo Alto are the senior citizens who think it's theirs.


7 people like this
Posted by Anon
a resident of Another Palo Alto neighborhood
on Dec 29, 2018 at 8:07 am

Posted by @Anon, a resident of another community

>> The only thing unappealing about Palo Alto are the senior citizens who think it's theirs.

LOL. Hypothetically speaking, are you OK with working senior citizens living here, or, does the sight of all senior citizens bother you? How about people over 50? 40? 30?


12 people like this
Posted by Estella Mnuchin
a resident of Barron Park
on Dec 29, 2018 at 8:46 am

Obama Saved said:
"It seems like you snowflakes have selective memory
Web Link"

Actually, it seems that a certain snowflake can't even read his link.

The article was dated BEFORE Obama's *inauguration*, and clearly stated that TARP was Bush's effort the previous October. Let's make it easy for our sf:

"...Treasury’s $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP, enacted in October to help stabilize credit markets."

Our sf not only has a "selective memory" but also selective rudimentary reading skills.

Or he just doesn't care about lying.


16 people like this
Posted by 3rd Year Law Student
a resident of Stanford
on Dec 29, 2018 at 8:51 am

> Some seniors like living in Palo Alto. Why shouldn't they, considering how un-appealing it is to younger people. Some say.
> The only thing unappealing about Palo Alto are the senior citizens who think it's theirs.

As of 2018, there are 51,424 adults residing in Palo Alto...12,415 are seniors (roughly 24%).

source: Web Link

That leaves about 75% of the PA population for younger adults and children regardless of ethnicities.

Do not dismay @Anon...by 2035, that 24% should drop to roughly 18% providing there is no discovery of a fountain of youth or miracle age-extending Rx.

Dementia and Alzheimer's will also take begin to their toll and countless lawyers will be filing petitions for full conservatorships of person and estate.

^^^This, along with various probate court-ordered 'lock-down' mandates will force many seniors from their homes and into assisted-care facilities. Some will also lose full control of their personal finances as well.

Be patient. Time waits for no one as everyone either gets older or passes on. My focus in law school is elder law and it will prove to be a very lucrative profession over the long haul as filing for conservatorships over the wishes of seniors is very easy to accomplish with a 96% success rate.

Just ask anyone who's currently under an unwanted or unwarranted conservatorship.
The kids often initiate it to gain faster access to their parent's real property and/or financial assets. Plus...the initial legal fees $25K to over $200K+ (if contested) eventually come out of the parent's assets anyway. That's how it works in probate court.

You will eventually get your brass ring on the merry-go-round of life.






20 people like this
Posted by R.Davis
a resident of Crescent Park
on Dec 29, 2018 at 9:02 am

R.Davis is a registered user.

^^^^^ Wow. Is there no end to what lawyers can do to enhance our daily lives?


14 people like this
Posted by 3rd Year Law Student
a resident of Stanford
on Dec 29, 2018 at 9:15 am

> Wow. Is there no end to what lawyers can do to enhance our daily lives?

It depends on what side you're on.

Lawyers naturally want to be on the winning side. Then again, there's also a lot of money to be made representing the eventual losers. We are talking about probate court where family members will often spend vast amounts of money on legal expenses to ideally procure an even bigger pay-off.

My best friend is in med school specializing in Gerontology. With a large aging American population, both Gerontology and Elder Law are the growth professions of the future which will allow the younger generations to 'cash-in'...big time.

Not everyone has to create a new APP to be financially successful.



2 people like this
Posted by Biding My Time In Tracy
a resident of another community
on Dec 30, 2018 at 1:08 pm

> Dementia and Alzheimer's will also take begin to their toll and countless lawyers will be filing petitions for full conservatorships of person and estate.

This is the key to eventually being able to reside in Palo Alto...especially if the older sellers revert to asking 1950-60 prices for their residential properties.
We will be keeping an eye out for 'For Sale By Owner' signs. After all, everyone knows that real estate agents are unnecessary when it comes to buying or selling a home.

> Be patient.

Will try (although commuting from Tracy to PA is beginning to wear thin).


Like this comment
Posted by @Biding
a resident of another community
on Dec 30, 2018 at 1:16 pm

"This is the key to eventually being able to reside in Palo Alto"

Or really, near it, Mountain View, many of the other job centers on the Peninsula. Once residential construction heats up in cities with completely lopsided jobs to housing ratios, and those ratios begin to balance out, being able to live within 20 minutes of Silicon Valley won't be such an outlandish prospect anymore.


17 people like this
Posted by Joe
a resident of Barron Park
on Dec 31, 2018 at 11:02 am

Anyone who buys in Palo Alto today or bought in the last 6 months will loose lots of money. We have seen million dollar price drops on Barron Park since the spring.


40 people like this
Posted by up and down
a resident of College Terrace
on Dec 31, 2018 at 11:36 am

Real estate in desirable areas like Palo Alto typically is the last to experience a decline in value during downturns (like in 2009) and is the first to increase in value during the subsequent upturns. (It's the opposite for real estate in less desirable areas like EPA.) Hence, it makes sense for potential buyers to jump into the Palo Alto real estate market in the next year or two, but potential sellers would be wise to wait out this likely brief downturn.


14 people like this
Posted by born every minute
a resident of Charleston Gardens
on Dec 31, 2018 at 12:31 pm

>> it makes sense for potential buyers to jump into the Palo Alto real estate market in the next year or two

Logic fail. All but admits there's a downturn coming, but hey, jump in now while prices are still high before they truly lay waste to PA home prices. The coming Trump recession, coupled with the real estate slowdown? Nothing to see here.

Uh-huh.

PT Barnum/Hannum was correct.


21 people like this
Posted by to bem and uad
a resident of Fairmeadow
on Dec 31, 2018 at 12:52 pm

[Post removed due to same poster using multiple names]


6 people like this
Posted by Akeisha
a resident of East Palo Alto
on Dec 31, 2018 at 9:47 pm

[Post removed due to same poster using multiple names]


2 people like this
Posted by Signs
a resident of Another Palo Alto neighborhood
on Jan 1, 2019 at 4:15 am

"The Trump Shutdown will hasten the Trump Recession"

It's already here. The government is across the board freezing civil service pay the way Obama did for most of his tenure esp justified b/c of financial crisis. Trump has rightly brought up that the government needs more highly qualified workers and the pay for highly qualified workers is not good. If times were good, at some point, there would start being pay increases to reflect it. The government is already acting like we are in a recession.


6 people like this
Posted by Signs
a resident of Another Palo Alto neighborhood
on Jan 1, 2019 at 4:20 am

@Akeisha,
If you want to stay in this area, don't sell. If you don't want to stay here, sell when you are ready to move. Except for a brief period after the earthquake around 89 90, I have never seen a time in this area when anyone thought housing prices were anything but obscene, and the only way to achieve stability is to own. East Palo Alto has long been a place for people to get starter homes, and that may disappear, but for now, the homes are in demand and prices still rising. What is the future of Facebook? That will probably give you answers if you are interested in optimizing, however, if you want to stay in the area, keep the house.


6 people like this
Posted by Old Joe
a resident of Barron Park
on Jan 2, 2019 at 9:08 am

@ Signs,

Be careful doling our advice.
The fall is inevitable, and to use your logic, has always followed these parabolic price rises.
Palo Alto ia s sinking ship.
Don’t get left holding the bag !


18 people like this
Posted by Pete's smocking g
a resident of Duveneck/St. Francis
on Jan 2, 2019 at 4:35 pm

Yup, the slowdown is coming. And Trump has his recession gaining steam.

And he's too stupid to have taken any moves for a soft landing. His hubris will hurt a LOT of Americans.


Like this comment
Posted by Palo Alto Sucks
a resident of Evergreen Park
on Jan 3, 2019 at 10:17 am

[Post removed.]


18 people like this
Posted by Anne
a resident of Midtown
on Jan 3, 2019 at 10:48 am

To Zhao Lin: If China is so great why are you living here? China is a totalitarian, polluted hellhole. I notice you voted with your feet.


10 people like this
Posted by Zhao Lin
a resident of Los Altos
on Jan 3, 2019 at 2:00 pm

> To Zhao Lin: If China is so great why are you living here?

China is great country but SF Bay Area better place to live. Too crowded in China.

Los Altos good for school children and elder parents. We have money to buy nice house and cars. Same as people who live in Palo Alto but Los Altos more expensive.


29 people like this
Posted by nine of ten docs say: "a loon!"
a resident of Leland Manor/Garland Drive
on Jan 3, 2019 at 2:29 pm

Trump's own staff says the Trump Shutdown will cost the economy a tenth of a point of GDP growth/loss every *week*.

This narcissist is digging our graves, with his shutdown, tariffs, etc..


37 people like this
Posted by Ahem
a resident of Another Palo Alto neighborhood
on Jan 3, 2019 at 5:46 pm

The Silicon Valley business model explained in 15 seconds:

1. Eliminate as many jobs as possible by developing & marketing automation.
2. Export any jobs that can't be easily automated to low-wage nations.
3. Import workers from low-wage nations to suppress wages for all of the jobs that can't be easily exported and kleptocrats to inflate the price of real-estate.

Pretend it is all about inclusion and diversity. If anyone challenges the model, call them a "raciss" or a NIMBY. When the business model collapses... find a convenient scapegoat.


6 people like this
Posted by Wu Shen
a resident of Charleston Meadows
on Jan 3, 2019 at 9:51 pm

[Post removed due to same poster using multiple names]



15 people like this
Posted by Anne
a resident of Midtown
on Jan 4, 2019 at 12:41 pm

To Zhao Lin and Wu Shen -

Yes, yes, I see that you are boastful about having the money to live here. So what? Lots of people here have money. What else do you bring to the table? Definitely not the power of your ideas.

Zhao Lin states "China is now #1". What is China #1 in? Having a big manufacturing economy I guess. How did it get there? Copying and stealing intellectual property, forced technology transfers, etc. What is there in the Chinese economy that is original and wasn't copied from the West? And by the way, the Chinese economy is not the biggest in the world by GDP. It is 2nd behind the United States. Currently the Chinese economy is in big trouble and we don't even know how bad it is because the Chinese leadership doesn't tell the truth to its own people or the world. Now it is the Chinese scratching heads to get their economy back on track. Why else to explain why so many Chinese are getting their money out of China - apparently illegally due to Chinese currency controls - because they are afraid of the Chinese system. You can't have it both ways.

I can think of some ways in which China is #1: spying on it's own people, repression, jailing the Uighur people, ruining Tibet, lack of transparency, industrial pollution, hacking into American business and government. If China is #1 and such a great country why are so many Chinese moving here? Americans aren't interested in moving to China, because it is NOT a great country. You want to live here and enjoy a superior quality of life, have some respect, don't preach to us China is #1, because it certainly is not. Your dear leader Pooh Bear Xi is trying to convince the world that dictatorship is the way to go and you are too - you will never convince Americans. But we're happy to have you spend all of your money here and stimulate our economy - go for it!

We need a big tax on foreigners buying and owning property here and ghost houses, like they have in Vancouver.


37 people like this
Posted by Madias
a resident of College Terrace
on Jan 4, 2019 at 1:14 pm

@Anne

Neither of those people you are writing to actully exist.
Those are fake names made up by a poster to stir up stereotypes and anger at the Chinese.
The poster is trolling you.


13 people like this
Posted by Lt. Col. Beck (USAF ret.)
a resident of Adobe-Meadow
on Jan 4, 2019 at 2:13 pm

> Neither of those people you are writing to actually exist. Those are fake names made up by a poster to stir up stereotypes and anger at the Chinese.

Yes. The Chinese do not do any of the things that Anne mentioned.

Seriously?


7 people like this
Posted by Old Joe
a resident of Barron Park
on Jan 4, 2019 at 2:30 pm

Just perusing Zillow to see if home prices are still dropping and …
Oh my gosh! Dozens of foreclosures ! and two Auctions. I've never seen so many in PA.


2 people like this
Posted by eileen
a resident of College Terrace
on Jan 4, 2019 at 10:15 pm

eileen is a registered user.

Old Joe, you are right! Wow, so many homes in foreclosure. Good news for residents who are here for the long haul.


8 people like this
Posted by R.Davis
a resident of Crescent Park
on Jan 5, 2019 at 8:52 am

R.Davis is a registered user.

The only ones who will actually come out ahead in this 'RE game' will be those who purchased their PA homes when you could buy a modest one for less than $300K and that was at least 25-30 years ago. Of course capital gains will eat into some of the profit.

Except for maybe some recently arrived from overseas residents (who frequently pay CASH), there are some folks carrying heavy mortgages to reside in Palo Alto & the surrounding area.


18 people like this
Posted by You Pay to Play
a resident of Community Center
on Jan 5, 2019 at 12:40 pm

If one cannot afford to live in Palo Alto, why go into major debt in order to do so?

Is it all about 'keeping up appearances'?

This factor is probably why PA is going downhill. Too many people want to live here for some inexplicable reason.


24 people like this
Posted by Born in PA
a resident of Midtown
on Jan 13, 2019 at 6:12 pm

Dont blame people for favoring their own country of heritage. We all forget where our families come from. We make up our own dividing lines to suit each of us.

The USA is the best country not because of only for the old immigrants(more than 4 generations?) but all immigrants too. Even D Trump is only 2nd generation born here. His wife is here due to Chain Immigration.


2 people like this
Posted by @You Pay To Play
a resident of another community
on Jan 14, 2019 at 1:53 am

"Too many people want to live here for some inexplicable reason."

I wonder if it has something to do with all those people who seem to be commuting into the city every weekday. What could all that be about? Hmmmmmmmm. What a mystery!


5 people like this
Posted by nine of ten docs say: a loon!
a resident of Leland Manor/Garland Drive
on Jan 14, 2019 at 7:41 am

Eileen: "Wow, so many homes in foreclosure. Good news..."

Wow. You must have been a hoot to be around during the Bush Great Recession in 2008.

Back to topic: this is an abnormal slowdown. With the coming recession (every Republican has had a recession in his first term, and this one is doing everything he can to **** this up - shutdown, adding trillions in debt, etc...) it could get really tough for awhile.


2 people like this
Posted by Lunch about
a resident of Barron Park
on Jan 14, 2019 at 11:34 am

Give Trump another month, it'll be worse.


Like this comment
Posted by Dontalhan
a resident of Ventura
on Jan 15, 2019 at 5:22 pm

The dropping is more so as the new year begins. I am worrying about the future of my homestead due to my mortgage and PMI. Are there programs to helping new residents avoid the “below water” situations? Advising please?


4 people like this
Posted by eileen
a resident of College Terrace
on Jan 15, 2019 at 5:30 pm

eileen is a registered user.

>>>nine of ten docs say: a loon! Yes, the above response I made was quite insensitive.
It is not easy when someone loses their home. It was a dumb remark on my part!


27 people like this
Posted by Mother's Best
a resident of College Terrace
on Jan 15, 2019 at 5:40 pm

Recession to be brought on by Trump Shutdown twice as fast

NYT today:

The partial government shutdown is inflicting far greater damage on the United States economy than previously estimated, the White House acknowledged on Tuesday, as President Trump’s economists doubled projections of how much economic growth is being lost each week

That's from the White House.

Yes, it's probably worse than that.

Buckle up.


2 people like this
Posted by Trump Lobbyist
a resident of Palo Alto Hills
on Jan 16, 2019 at 4:30 pm

Can't give a SOTU address when we're in the middle of the Trump Shutdown.

Just another nail in the economic confidence coffin.

What an idiot.


7 people like this
Posted by Latest data/reports
a resident of Community Center
on Jan 18, 2019 at 10:13 am

Consumer Confidence report out - plummets from 97 to 90. Biggest drop in two years.

Wait until the next one is released in 2 weeks.

Winter is coming, GOT fans. Bundle up, financially speaking.

/sam


Like this comment
Posted by musical
a resident of Palo Verde
on Jan 18, 2019 at 2:33 pm

^ Dow up another 300 today, 700 on the week.


12 people like this
Posted by nine of ten docs say: a loon!
a resident of Leland Manor/Garland Drive
on Jan 18, 2019 at 4:28 pm

^ Dow up another 300 today, 700 on the week.

Using Dow data as an indicator of the coming recession is folly.

But you are correct, the Dow at 24,000 shows how strong the Obama Recovery was for stocks, from a low of ~7,000 at the bottom of the Bush Great Recession.


Like this comment
Posted by Madias
a resident of College Terrace
on Jan 18, 2019 at 6:46 pm

@Musical
Its a FOMO rally that will be followed by a huge drop.
The recent rise is not a sustainable tend, as it is not supported by any underlying economic data.


4 people like this
Posted by Long Time Resident
a resident of Old Palo Alto
on Jan 18, 2019 at 8:44 pm

Summerhill homes will have 1,000 new residences available soon in Sunnyvale (off Alma). They are building both apartments and condos for sale.
San Jose is planning 22,000 housing units.
There will be plenty of housing stock available for a work force to commute in either by train or car.


1 person likes this
Posted by musical
a resident of Palo Verde
on Jan 18, 2019 at 10:58 pm

Palo Alto belongs to optimists. Pessimists are only spectators.
(Paraphrasing François Guizot)


2 people like this
Posted by The Hawk
a resident of another community
on Jan 19, 2019 at 6:18 pm

A good full-sized global war will stimulate the economy. That's how America got out of the Great Depression.

Of course, the cause must be worthwhile in order to unite the country...'police interventions' usually don't cut it or contribute to overall victory.


Like this comment
Posted by sel
a resident of Barron Park
on Jan 19, 2019 at 9:16 pm

"how America got out of the Great Depression."

A myth. Look at GDP in the 30's. Except for GOP austerity in 1936, 8t was organic.


1 person likes this
Posted by nine of ten docs say: a loon!
a resident of Leland Manor/Garland Drive
on Jan 20, 2019 at 8:39 am

"A good full-sized global war will stimulate the economy"

Inhumane comment. Also wrong on many levels, the least of which is: we spent trillions in debt for Iraq and all we got out of it was the Bush Great Recession in 2008.


Meanwhile, the Trump Shutdown puts more pressure on the economy...

Moodys: The record government shutdown, if not resolved soon, could be 'fodder for recession'


8 people like this
Posted by Moot
a resident of Ventura
on Jan 20, 2019 at 10:59 am

Difficult to feel sorry or sad about falling real estate prices when the they were so over inflated to begin with. It was never sustainable anyway. What were people expecting long term? The 1% trading homes?

As for the people who think that the democrats don’t think of the middle class, I can understand that but Trump and the republicans are certainly worse. The only people the don’t hurt are the 1%.

Obama was a decent president , not a great one however I would rather have his intelligence and grace than the infantile behavior of Trump.


2 people like this
Posted by Trump Lobbyist
a resident of Community Center
on Jan 20, 2019 at 5:49 pm

Even Fox told Trump/Pence they are hurting markets with the Trump Shutdown. Today:

“You could open the government tomorrow,” Wallace told Pence.

Pence had no answer. Who is the bigger fool - Pence or Trump?


Like this comment
Posted by Yup
a resident of Crescent Park
on Jan 20, 2019 at 8:11 pm

Trump's shutdown is starting to effect numbers. Bad news, bucko.


Like this comment
Posted by Polly Wanacracker
a resident of Professorville
on Jan 20, 2019 at 10:27 pm

"Who is the bigger fool - Pence or Trump?"

Trump. Pence is just Biden his time to 2020.


Sorry, but further commenting on this topic has been closed.

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