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Town Square

National Polls: Skewed and unskewed

Original post made by Gary on Nov 7, 2012

Looks like the biggest winner last night, after Obama, was Nate Silver and the composite poll blogs. Biggest losers? Karl Rove, who kept claiming to the losers on Fox that Ohio wouldn't go to Obama after Fox called it, and the poll losers were Gallup and Rasmussen (again.)

Karl and Republicans: you are no entitled to your own math. It is THE math that counts.

.......................................

From Fordham University's Costas Panagopoulos, director of the university's Center for Electoral Politics and Democracy.

"For all the ridicule directed towards pre-election polling, the final poll estimates were not far off from the actual nationwide vote shares for the two candidates," said Dr. Panagopoulos.

On average, pre-election polls from 28 public polling organizations projected a Democratic advantage of 1.07 percentage points on Election Day, which is only about 0.63 percentage points away from the current estimate of a 1.7-point Obama margin in the national popular vote. [...]

1. PPP (D)
1. Daily Kos/SEIU/PPP
3. YouGov
4. Ipsos/Reuters
5. Purple Strategies
6. NBC/WSJ
6. CBS/NYT
6. YouGov/Economist
9. UPI/CVOTER
10. IBD/TIPP
11. Angus-Reid
12. ABC/WP
13. Pew Research
13. Hartford Courant/UConn
15. CNN/ORC
15. Monmouth/SurveyUSA
15. Politico/GWU/Battleground
15. FOX News
15. Washington Times/JZ Analytics
15. Newsmax/JZ Analytics
15. American Research Group
15. Gravis Marketing
23. Democracy Corps (D)
24. Rasmussen
24. Gallup
26. NPR
27. National Journal
28. AP/GfK

Comments

Posted by Ducatigirl, a resident of Old Palo Alto
on Nov 7, 2012 at 2:49 pm

Ducatigirl is a registered user.

thanx , Gary. As usual, you're awesome.